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    October 30, 2014

    Today's market Commentary


    Mortgage bond prices are flat this morning following the mixed data.

    Weekly jobless claims came in at 287k versus the expected 283k. This was rate friendly. Q3 Advance GDP rose 3.5% versus the expected 3% increase. This was not rate friendly.

    The initial reaction was relatively muted with a slight positive bias.

    Yesterday afternoon, mortgage bond prices fell following the Fed meeting but rebounded a bit to close near unchanged to slightly weaker since pricing.

    The Fed kept rates unchanged, ended their bond buying program this month, and said the data would dictate the future.

    "The Committee anticipates, based on its current assessment, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time following the end of its asset purchase program this month, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored. However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee's employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated. Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.

    When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

    We have income, outlays, employment cost

    Tuesday, Oct 28, 2014
    Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 am et

    Tuesday, Oct 28, 2014
    Consumer Confidence @ 10 am et

    Wednesday, Oct 29, 2014
    Fed Meeting Adjourns @ 2:15pm et

    Thursday, Oct 30, 2014
    Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am et

    Thursday, Oct 30, 2014
    Q3 Advance GDP @ 8:30 am ET

    Friday, Oct 31, 2014
    Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Oct 31, 2014
    PCE Core Inflation @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Oct 31, 2014
    Q3 Employment Cost Index @ 8:30 am ET

    Friday, Oct 31, 2014
    U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 10 am et

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