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    March 5, 2014

    Today's market Commentary

    Mortgage bond prices were slightly positive at pricing holding the small improvements from yesterday afternoon.

    We got what we needed from the data this morning. Initially it was countered by the timing of the European Central Bank QE announcement. As time progressed we eventually turned positive.

    Factory Orders fell 0.2%, expected up 0.2%. Weekly Jobless Claims were 320K versus the expected 300K. This was rate friendly. Q4 Revised Productivity fell 2.2% versus the expected 2.3% decrease which was relatively rate neutral.

    Unfortunately ECB President Dragha started talking right around 8:30 am et and this set MBS prices off on the wrong foot. Draghi indicated the european bond buying will start March 9 and will go through September of 2016. He also noted that the program has already seen positive reaction from the eurozone. The bad news for us is the unwinding of the earlier flight to quality buying of U.S. debt instruments such as MBSs. As we have seen, MBS prices have fallen and rates have risen as of late. We need help from the heavyweight employment report Friday morning to stem the recent flow.

    Event Calendar:
    Friday, Feb 27, 2015
    Q4 GDP 2nd Estimate @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Feb 27, 2015
    U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 10 am et

    Monday, Mar 2, 2015
    Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 am et

    Monday, Mar 2, 2015
    PCE Core Inflation @ 8:30 am et

    Monday, Mar 2, 2015
    ISM Index @ 10 am et

    Wednesday, Mar 4, 2015
    ADP Employment @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Mar 4, 2015
    Fed �??Beige Book�?? @ 2pm et

    Thursday, Mar 5, 2015
    Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am et

    Thursday, Mar 5, 2015
    Q4 Revised Productivity @ 8:30 am et

    Thursday, Mar 5, 2015
    Factory Orders @ 10 am et

    Friday, Mar 6, 2015
    Employment @ 8:30 am et

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