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    July 30, 2014

    Today's market Commentary
    10 am ET pricing is set

    Mortgage bond prices remain lower mid-morning Wednesday erasing the small gains seen Tuesday afternoon and more. Rates are under pressure from strong economic data released at the open.

    The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report released before the open indicated the US economy added 218,000 jobs in July. Expectations were for an increase of 215,000. This is the first of three jobs related reports this week, tomorrow brings weekly jobless claims and Friday is the mother of all data with the monthly BLS employment situation report.

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic output, showed the US economy expanded at a 4% pace in Q2 2014. Traders were expecting the economy to grow 3.2%. Strong spending from consumers buying cars and other durable goods pushed the economy forward. This data is subject to massive revisions in the coming months, however that does not make a difference this morning.

    Is inflation on the rise? The GDP report his morning indicated consumer prices are increasing setting off alarm bells for traders. Core PCE, the Fed preferred inflation gauge rose 0.8% to stand at 2%. If food and energy costs were included, PCE stood at 2.3% on an annualized basis. Inflation, whether real or perceived will drive interest rates higher to compensate bond investors for the diminished returns in the future.

    Traders will watch stocks as they wait for the events of the afternoon to unfold. At the 10 am ET price point the Dow was near unchanged.

    This afternoon has two events that could move MBS prices. The Treasury will auction $29B of 7-year notes with results by 1:15 pm ET. At 2:00 pm ET the Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy. Market participants will watch the wording of the announcement closely for an indication of when the Fed may begin raising interest rates.

    Event Calendar:
    Monday, Jul 28, 2014
    2-year note auction @ 1:15 pm ET

    Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014
    5-year note auction @ 1:15 pm ET

    Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014
    Consumer Confidence @ 10 am et

    Wednesday, Jul 30, 2014
    ADP Employment @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Jul 30, 2014
    Q2 Advance GDP @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Jul 30, 2014
    Fed Meeting Adjourns @ 2:15pm et

    Wednesday, Jul 30, 2014
    7-year note auction by 1:15 pm ET

    Thursday, Jul 31, 2014
    Weekly Jobless Claims @8:30 am et

    Thursday, Jul 31, 2014
    Q2 Employment Cost Index @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Aug 1, 2014
    Employment @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Aug 1, 2014
    Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Aug 1, 2014
    PCE Core Inflation @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Aug 1, 2014
    ISM Index @ 10 am et


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