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    December 18, 2014

    Today's market Commentary

    Mortgage bond prices are weaker this morning adding to the losses from yesterday afternon. The data was not rate friendly. Weekly jobless claims were 289K versus the expected 292K.

    The Fed left rates unchanged, noted inflation is below projected levels, and said they can remain "patient" before making rate adjustments. After considerable volatility up and down as traders digested the data we ended on the wrong side of things and rates shot higher. Many people fail to realize that the Fed still remains the dominant force in the MBS market. While new QE injections ceased the old ones still play a major role. The Fed currently holds over $1.7 trillion....that's right....TRILLION dollars worth of mortgage-backed securities. Yesterday's statement indicated, "The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions." This is good news. But make no mistake, mortgage interest rates are at the low levels today for one reason only....the Fed.

    The Fed also noted, "When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent." This leads us to the big concern.....TIMING. When the Fed unwinds positions rates will increase. However, the last thing the Fed wants to do is to damage the recovering housing sector of the economy so their task remains a challenge. Over the past 24 hours they haven't helped us. However, over time they have done an excellent job of keeping rates low in a very uncertain environment.

    Event Calendar:
    Monday, Dec 15, 2014
    Industrial Production @ 9:15 am et

    Monday, Dec 15, 2014
    Capacity Utilization @ 9:15 am et

    Tuesday, Dec 16, 2014
    Housing Starts @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Dec 17, 2014
    Consumer Price Index @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Dec 17, 2014
    Fed Meeting Adjourns @ 2:15 pm et

    Thursday, Dec 18, 2014
    Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am et

    Thursday, Dec 18, 2014
    Philadelphia Fed Survey @ 10 am et

    Thursday, Dec 18, 2014
    Leading Economic Indicators @ 10 am et

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