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    March 26, 2014

    Today's market Commentary
    10 am EDT, pricing is set

    Mortgage bond prices remain lower mid-morning Thursday adding to the losses seen Wednesday afternoon.

    Weekly jobless claims printed at 282K and continuing claims, a summation of all receiving benefits, at 2,416K. Economists‚?? expectations were for claims to print at 290K and continuing claims at 2,415K. The lower read on the weekly claims in not rate friendly.

    Traders will watch stocks as they wait for the results of the Treasury auction $29B of 7-year notes. At the 10 am EDT price point the Dow was down 88 points. Auction results will be published by 1:15 pm EDT.

    Yesterday both stocks and bonds were hit with lower prices. When the price of a bond falls, interest rates rise. We are seeing the same thing this morning, which is disappointing for bonds given the flare up in Yemen (see below). It would be nice to see some flight to safety support, however it looks like investors are moving to cash for the time being.

    The situation in the Middle East continues to grow more complicated and violent. Saudi Arabia began military operations against the Houthi rebels in Yemen on Wednesday night and this lit a fire under crude oil prices. Yemen is not a big oil producer however the country is strategically located by the Bab-el-Mandeb, the strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. 3.8M barrels of oil are transported through the area a day. Any supply disruption from the Middle East would be welcome news for oil producers in the US who have recently shuttered wells as oil prices fell. It is nice to know that the US can be energy independent. This story will get more interesting as time goes on. Few expect a quick resolution to the conflict in Yemen.

    Event Calendar:
    Monday, Mar 23, 2015
    Existing Home Sales @ 10 am et

    Tuesday, Mar 24, 2015
    Consumer Price Index @ 8:30 am et

    Tuesday, Mar 24, 2015
    New Home Sales @ 10am et

    Tuesday, Mar 24, 2015
    2Y Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm et

    Wednesday, Mar 25, 2015
    Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 am et

    Wednesday, Mar 25, 2015
    5Y Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15pm et

    Thursday, Mar 26, 2015
    Weekly Jobless Claims @ 8:30 am et

    Thursday, Mar 26, 2015
    7Y Treasury Note Auction @ 1:15 pm et

    Friday, Mar 27, 2015
    Q4 GDP Revision @ 8:30 am et

    Friday, Mar 27, 2015
    U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment @ 10 am et


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